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Myanmar is at risk of dormant conflicts reigniting
Furthermore, anti-war demonstrations in 2020 by youth activists were met with state repression. Anti-war sentiment among the youth in Myanmar notably crosses ethnic boundaries, and the continued repression of such activism is only likely to lead to further discontent.
As 2021 progresses, in addition to the likelihood of increased disorder resulting from the military coup, the threat that dormant armed conflicts could reignite remains.
Following the general elections on 8 November 2020
in Myanmar, fighting in Rakhine state and southern
Chin state came to a sudden halt. The United League
of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), an ethnic Rakhine
group fighting for greater autonomy, announced a
unilateral ceasefire, which the military then reciprocated.
Subsequent meetings have since been held to
discuss the possibility of a bilateral ceasefire between
the groups. The current military coup underway
in Myanmar will likely derail such talks.
Prior to the current cessation of fighting in Rakhine
state and Chin state’s Paletwa township, conflict in
the region had been on the rise. Most notably, the
military’s use of airstrikes and shelling both during
combat and in civilian areas had been increasing relative
to 2019. Many civilians have been injured and
killed during the conflict over the past two years.
While fighting has temporarily stopped, no stable
solution to the conflict has been achieved.
Against this backdrop, anti-war demonstrations in
2020 by youth activists were met with state repression.
Student and youth activists held demonstrations
in Rakhine state and also in Mandalay region,
which has become a hotbed for current student
activism. Members of the All Burma Federation of
Student Unions (ABFSU), a national-level umbrella
student union, have been detained and face imprisonment
for distributing anti-war leaflets around
Mandalay last year (Fortify Rights, 12 January 2021).
Anti-war sentiment among the youth in Myanmar
notably crosses ethnic boundaries, and the continued
repression of such activism is only likely to lead
to further discontent.
As 2021 progresses, in addition to the likelihood
of increased disorder resulting from the military
coup, the threat that dormant armed conflicts could
reignite remains. No political solution to the conflict
in Rakhine state has been achieved. Many ethnic
Rakhine and Chin villagers remain displaced, not to
mention the many thousands of Rohingya refugees
still languishing in camps in Bangladesh. There are
troubling signs that conflict in Kayin state could
intensify while fighting between Shan and Ta’ang
rebel groups continues in Shan state. The military’s
decision to seize power has thrown any discussions
of peace into doubt.