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Trends in Security Information
The HSD Trendmonitor is designed to provide access to relevant content on various subjects in the safety and security domain, to identify relevant developments and to connect knowledge and organisations. The safety and security domain encompasses a vast number of subjects. Four relevant taxonomies (type of threat or opportunity, victim, source of threat and domain of application) have been constructed in order to visualize all of these subjects. The taxonomies and related category descriptions have been carefully composed according to other taxonomies, European and international standards and our own expertise.
In order to identify safety and security related trends, relevant reports and HSD news articles are continuously scanned, analysed and classified by hand according to the four taxonomies. This results in a wide array of observations, which we call ‘Trend Snippets’. Multiple Trend Snippets combined can provide insights into safety and security trends. The size of the circles shows the relative weight of the topic, the filters can be used to further select the most relevant content for you. If you have an addition, question or remark, drop us a line at info@securitydelta.nl.
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A potential economic recession following the COVID-19 pandemic will shape serious and organised crime in the EU
A potential deep economic recession following the COVID-19 pandemic will fundamentally shape serious and organised crime in the EU for the near future. Previous periods of economic stress can provide some degree of insight into how these developments might affect crime in the EU and what responses need to be formulated to counter existing and emerging threats to the EU’s internal security during this time.
The global COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictions imposed to stop the spread of the disease have been widely forecast to result in a deep and severe economic recession on a global scale. The EU will be significantly affected by this development. A severe economic recession or even depression may shape the serious and organised crime landscape in the EU for years to come. Previous experiences from times of severe economic crisis, such as the financial crisis of the late 2000s and early 2010s, allow us to anticipate how another such economic crisis may influence the threat from serious and organised crime. The economic downturn created by the global COVID-19 pandemic is expected to last well beyond 2021. 2020 saw the worst recession since the Great Depression(63). The restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus slowed down economic activity, resulting in a fall in consumer spending, retail sales and employment(64). The level of output is expected to remain below its pre-pandemic levels for a prolonged period of time(65). Some of the hardest hit industries, such as aviation, hospitality, culture and leisure, have yet to experience the full impact of the crisis, due to current government support schemes and stimulus packages(66). The economic outlook remains bleak. The World Bank estimates that by 2025, output will still be 5% below its pre-pandemic trend, which could lead to a cumulative output loss equal to 35% of world output in 2019(67). ING Groep NV has estimated that the economy will not return to its pre-pandemic levels until at least 2023(68). The EU and Member States have established support and recovery funds on an unprecedented scale in order to mitigate the potentially catastrophic impact of a recession following the COVID-19 pandemic. The funds aim to support private companies of all sizes, the selfemployed, non-profit organisations and private citizens. These funds have already been targeted by fraudsters seeking to illegally access these billion of euros of resources. While safeguards are in place to prevent abuse at national and European level, authorities have had to distribute these support payments so fast that this has weakened some of the due diligence procedures and already allowed some criminals to illegally benefit from these funds. Member States and the EU will seek to further support European economies with offers of financial and other support. It is expected that some criminals will specialise in abusing these vital schemes by orchestrating complex networks of companies in order to defraud public funds. The potential loss of billions of euros of public revenues through VAT and other frauds directly affects taxpayer interests and the ability of governments to fund essential public services. Rising unemployment, reductions in legitimate investment and further constraints on the resources of public authorities may combine to present greater opportunities for criminal groups, as individuals and organisations in the private and public sectors are rendered more vulnerable to compromise. The weak capitalisation of some EU-based companies due to the economic crisis may make them vulnerable to takeovers by criminals based inside and outside the EU seeking a conduit to broaden their EU operations. Foreign investments in EU companies are largely positive and provide an influx of capital used to develop corporate structures and markets in the EU. However, they also entail the risk of EU economies being infiltrated with criminal funds generated outside the EU. This can allow criminals to establish a foothold in EU markets to the detriment of legally operating EU companies drawing on funds from legitimate sources. Extensive cooperation with compromised specialists in the legal and financial sectors underpins this activity, particularly in regard to investment firms and money service businesses. Here, too, employees are likely to experience the effects of a global economic crisis and may be more vulnerable to compromise by criminals. A global economic crisis may bring ordinary EU citizens into closer proximity to organised crime. Communities may become more tolerant of certain types of crime such as the distribution of counterfeit goods or the cultivation of cannabis. This may also make individuals more vulnerable to recruitment by criminal groups due to a lack of alternative legal prospects. Young people with advanced technical skills who are unable to gain employment in their chosen fields of expertise may turn to crime in order to finance themselves. This may result in a significant increase in the number of individuals engaging in cybercrime or offering cybercrime-related services.