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Trends in Security Information
The HSD Trendmonitor is designed to provide access to relevant content on various subjects in the safety and security domain, to identify relevant developments and to connect knowledge and organisations. The safety and security domain encompasses a vast number of subjects. Four relevant taxonomies (type of threat or opportunity, victim, source of threat and domain of application) have been constructed in order to visualize all of these subjects. The taxonomies and related category descriptions have been carefully composed according to other taxonomies, European and international standards and our own expertise.
In order to identify safety and security related trends, relevant reports and HSD news articles are continuously scanned, analysed and classified by hand according to the four taxonomies. This results in a wide array of observations, which we call ‘Trend Snippets’. Multiple Trend Snippets combined can provide insights into safety and security trends. The size of the circles shows the relative weight of the topic, the filters can be used to further select the most relevant content for you. If you have an addition, question or remark, drop us a line at info@securitydelta.nl.
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Ethiopia is at risk of multiplying conflicts stretching the capacity of the state
Several conflicts are simultaneously occurring in
Konso, West and Kelem Wollega, Gujji, Tigray, and
the Oromo/Somali border area. All have resulted
in the death of hundreds and the displacement of
millions. Recent violence in the Sudan border region
adds to the list (BBC, 3 January 2021). The common
thread linking these conflicts are the ‘administrative
contests’ that have emerged as groups driven by
ethno-regional nationalism seek formal recognition,
authority, and territory. Administrative recognition
and dominance are the basis of most conflicts that
the Abiy government confronts, which have been
incentivized by suggestions that Abiy may try to alter
the basis of ethno-nationalist territorial claims to
authority.
Over the past year, ethnic political parties
from the various regions have generally become
more radical in their claims for self-determination
— for example Wolayta in the Southern Nations,
Nationalities, and People's Region (SNNPR) (Addis
Standard, 10 August 2020), or the TPLF in Tigray (Al
Jazeera, 30 October 2020). Further, rising ethno-nationalist
sentiments have transformed long-running
territorial squabbles over resources into bigger and
wider conflicts that potentially include all members
of an ethnic group. Examples include the Somali/
Afar border (Reuters, 29 October 2020), the Oromo/
Somali border, Western Tigray, Metekel Zone, and
Kemise (Oromo special zone).
In the run-up to the first national elections following
a major change in government, Ethiopia is in
the midst of several concurrent political struggles.
Armed groups are challenging federal government
troops across areas of the country, while ethnic violence
and killing occurs on a weekly basis. Although
Prime Minister Abiy proved that the central government
possesses considerable capacity through the
defeat of the TPLF in the latter half of 2020, additional
challenges that remain in the state are likely to
contribute to a volatile year. Ethiopia’s position as a
linchpin for security in the region means that violence
occurring in the state will have consequences
beyond domestic implications, affecting policy and
conflicts across the Horn of Africa.