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The HSD Trendmonitor is designed to provide access to relevant content on various subjects in the safety and security domain, to identify relevant developments and to connect knowledge and organisations. The safety and security domain encompasses a vast number of subjects. Four relevant taxonomies (type of threat or opportunity, victim, source of threat and domain of application) have been constructed in order to visualize all of these subjects. The taxonomies and related category descriptions have been carefully composed according to other taxonomies, European and international standards and our own expertise.
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India and Pakistan are at risk of increased cross-border violence in Kashmir
Cross-border violence between India and Pakistan in the Kashmir region is expected to continue increasing in 2021. With both sides adopting non-cooperative militarized strategies, bilateral attempts at resolving the Kashmir conflict remain unlikely in the near future.
2020 was another tumultuous year for India and
Pakistan as relations plummeted amid increased
clashes along the disputed Jammu and Kashmir
(J&K) border. The spike in fighting made 2020 the
most violent year for conflict between India and
Pakistan since the beginning of ACLED coverage in
2016.1 India focused on deflecting opportunities for
negotiation and tightening control of Kashmir, while
promoting pro-Indian politics in the region. Pakistan
responded by continuously casting doubt on the bilateral
ceasefire agreement with India by highlighting
Indian violations and human rights abuses in
Kashmir at international diplomatic forums, as well
as inciting violence near the Line of Control (LoC)
(United States Institute of Peace, 5 August 2020).
Cross-border violence between India and Pakistan
in the Kashmir region is expected to continue increasing
in 2021. With both sides adopting non-cooperative
militarized strategies, bilateral attempts at
resolving the Kashmir conflict remain unlikely in the
near future. Tension between Indian and Chinese
forces in Ladakh further compounds the conflict
dynamic in the Kashmir region. Diplomatic negotiations
between India and China aimed at de-escalating
the conflict remain inconclusive. Failure to reach
a peaceful settlement of the LAC dispute with China
would leave India to contend with both Pakistan
and China — regional allies — along both borders in
Kashmir. Additionally, recent policy shifts fueling the
increased marginalization of J&K’s Muslim poplulation
may aggravate the persistent threat of domestic
and foreign militancy in Kashmir.