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Trends in Security Information
The HSD Trendmonitor is designed to provide access to relevant content on various subjects in the safety and security domain, to identify relevant developments and to connect knowledge and organisations. The safety and security domain encompasses a vast number of subjects. Four relevant taxonomies (type of threat or opportunity, victim, source of threat and domain of application) have been constructed in order to visualize all of these subjects. The taxonomies and related category descriptions have been carefully composed according to other taxonomies, European and international standards and our own expertise.
In order to identify safety and security related trends, relevant reports and HSD news articles are continuously scanned, analysed and classified by hand according to the four taxonomies. This results in a wide array of observations, which we call ‘Trend Snippets’. Multiple Trend Snippets combined can provide insights into safety and security trends. The size of the circles shows the relative weight of the topic, the filters can be used to further select the most relevant content for you. If you have an addition, question or remark, drop us a line at info@securitydelta.nl.
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States and non-state actors will engage in more dangerous and sophisticated cyberattacks
Subversive influences Misinformation, cyberattacks, targeted strikes and resource grabs are on the rise. The pandemic has shown how governments can wield conspiracy theories as geopolitical weapons by making accusations about other states. The next decade is likely to see more frequent and impactful dissemination of disinformation on issues of geopolitical importance such as elections, humanitarian crises, public health, security and cultural issues (see Chapter 2, Error 404). States and nonstate actors alike will likely engage in more dangerous cyberattacks, and these attacks will become more sophisticated. Targeted strikes—through drones or other technologies—will become more ubiquitous. A warming planet will create new geographic realities, like shipping lanes in the Arctic, which could stoke resource competition. These concerns will continue to create a difficult global trade and business environment, adding to the risk of anaemic global economic growth. Although all countries must defend against these power plays, middle powers are targeted more aggressively than smaller states (see Figure 4.1), yet many lack the defensive resources of the superpowers. With lagging technological and military capabilities, middle powers will need to allocate a larger proportion of their national budgets to defence or develop stronger alliances to maintain a minimum level of protection against attack.