Trends in Security Information
The HSD Trendmonitor is designed to provide access to relevant content on various subjects in the safety and security domain, to identify relevant developments and to connect knowledge and organisations. The safety and security domain encompasses a vast number of subjects. Four relevant taxonomies (type of threat or opportunity, victim, source of threat and domain of application) have been constructed in order to visualize all of these subjects. The taxonomies and related category descriptions have been carefully composed according to other taxonomies, European and international standards and our own expertise.
In order to identify safety and security related trends, relevant reports and HSD news articles are continuously scanned, analysed and classified by hand according to the four taxonomies. This results in a wide array of observations, which we call ‘Trend Snippets’. Multiple Trend Snippets combined can provide insights into safety and security trends. The size of the circles shows the relative weight of the topic, the filters can be used to further select the most relevant content for you. If you have an addition, question or remark, drop us a line at info@securitydelta.nl.
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Migratory flows have slowed down during the COVID-19 pandemic
Migratory flows were reduced during the COVID-19 lockdown. A loosening of travel and movement restrictions is likely to result in an increase in the movements of irregular migrants, both facilitated and unfacilitated, as they have been largely unable to make further movements during the lockdown. There may be further changes in the most common modi operandi to smuggle migrants similar to the current switch from crossing green borders between border crossing points (BCPs) to increasingly using concealments in vehicles to cross the EU’s external border at BCPs. Migrant smugglers may resort to measures to limit the number of irregular migrants smuggled during individual trips or use more safe
houses to limit exposure of irregular migrants to potential contagions. This may drive up prices for facilitation services.
While the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Europe is not yet clear, it is expected to be significant and the impact on economies in the developing world is likely to be even more profound. Prolonged economic instability and the sustained lack of opportunities in some African economies such as Libya may trigger another wave of irregular migration towards the EU in the mid-term. This development needs to be carefully monitored.
A weakening economy in the EU may also increase demand for cheap labour accessible through labour exploitation in the context of debt bondage owed by irregular migrants to their smugglers.
A global recession as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a significant long-term impacton migration. Economic factors play a large role in determining migratory flows and the preferences ofirregular migrants travelling to their desired destination countries. A global economic crisis and sustainede conomic hardship will have a significant impact on the EU economy and is equally likely to serve as a push factor for irregular migrants originating from source countries that are economically less resilient,such as in Africa. Migrant smuggling networks are likely to increase their activities and facilitate anincreasing number of irregular migrants both on their journey to and during secondary movements within the EU.
The factors determining the direction and intensity of migration flows will remain the same and include the costs of smuggling services for irregular migrants, the perceived economic benefits of being in the EU as well as the overall socio-economic conditions in the destination countries. During migratory movements, irregular migrants rely on the accessibility of facilitation services and the likelihood of crossing the border without being returned. Migrant smuggling will continue to be a generator of significant profit for the OCGs engaging in this activity.