Trends in Security Information
The HSD Trendmonitor is designed to provide access to relevant content on various subjects in the safety and security domain, to identify relevant developments and to connect knowledge and organisations. The safety and security domain encompasses a vast number of subjects. Four relevant taxonomies (type of threat or opportunity, victim, source of threat and domain of application) have been constructed in order to visualize all of these subjects. The taxonomies and related category descriptions have been carefully composed according to other taxonomies, European and international standards and our own expertise.
In order to identify safety and security related trends, relevant reports and HSD news articles are continuously scanned, analysed and classified by hand according to the four taxonomies. This results in a wide array of observations, which we call ‘Trend Snippets’. Multiple Trend Snippets combined can provide insights into safety and security trends. The size of the circles shows the relative weight of the topic, the filters can be used to further select the most relevant content for you. If you have an addition, question or remark, drop us a line at info@securitydelta.nl.
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Usage of predictive policing and its challenges
PREDICTIVE POLICING
Within law enforcement, decision-making processes are increasingly reliant on intelligence derived from large and complex datasets. A recent advancement is “predictive policing”, employing sophisticated statistical methods to extract valuable new insights
from vast datasets, for instance on crime records, events and environmental factors identified in criminological insights. This approach empowers police agencies to identify patterns related to
the occurrence of crime and unsafe situations, and to deploy forces according to these insights to minimise risks.
Predictive policing, leverages the capabilities of AI to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of policing activities. Primarily implemented through rule-based machine learning models, predictive policing involves two fundamental steps: (a) data collection and (b) data modelling (prediction). In the data collection phase, police departments accumulate structured and unstructured data from diverse sources, including historical crime data (time, place, and type), socio-economic data, and opportunity variables. This information is supplemented in some cases with data from probation and social services, among other relevant sources. Subsequently, machine learning algorithms are employed to analyse this data in training and prediction phases. The AI model identifies
patterns within historical data, associating indicators with the likelihood of a crime occurring, and then generates risk scores as predictive outputs.
Predictive policing manifests in two main types: (a) area-based and (b) individual-based policing. Area-based algorithms identify connections between locations, occurrences, and historical crime statistics to forecast the likelihood of crimes occurring at specific times and places. For instance, they can predict increased crime rates during certain weather conditions or at major sporting events. Individual-based predictive policing anticipates persons most likely to engage in criminal activities. This approach has gained traction in various EU member states, including the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, France, Estonia, and Romania, with others exploring its potential implementation.
Despite the potential benefits of predictive policing, concerns have been raised globally by policymakers and human rights groups regarding its potential to infringe upon fundamental human rights. The EU AI Act attempts to address these concerns; the relevant
provisions will be discussed in Chapter 5.
In conclusion, predictive policing represents a transformative approach to law enforcement through the integration of AI technologies. As its implementation continues to evolve, policymakers must navigate the delicate balance between harnessing the potential benefits and addressing the ethical and legal concerns associated with this innovative policing tool.