Trends in Security Information
The HSD Trendmonitor is designed to provide access to relevant content on various subjects in the safety and security domain, to identify relevant developments and to connect knowledge and organisations. The safety and security domain encompasses a vast number of subjects. Four relevant taxonomies (type of threat or opportunity, victim, source of threat and domain of application) have been constructed in order to visualize all of these subjects. The taxonomies and related category descriptions have been carefully composed according to other taxonomies, European and international standards and our own expertise.
In order to identify safety and security related trends, relevant reports and HSD news articles are continuously scanned, analysed and classified by hand according to the four taxonomies. This results in a wide array of observations, which we call ‘Trend Snippets’. Multiple Trend Snippets combined can provide insights into safety and security trends. The size of the circles shows the relative weight of the topic, the filters can be used to further select the most relevant content for you. If you have an addition, question or remark, drop us a line at info@securitydelta.nl.
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Activity around the distribution of child sexual exploitation material online appears to be on the increase
- The number of referrals from NCMEC/NCECC: there appears to not be a significant increase in the number of referrals.
- Information from national law enforcement authorities on the number of searches being carried out online for CSEM: Countries have reported an increase in the number of attempts to access illegal websites featuring CSEM blocked in their filters.
- The number of reports from the public to law enforcement or other institutions (hotlines)
- The nature or volume of new posts on online forums dedicated to child sexual exploitation compared to established baselines
- Conversations between criminals on forums
- Number of detected connections from which CSEM has been downloaded over peer-to-peer file-sharing networks: Spain has reported an increase, other countries have also reported similar trends.
While the entirety of online child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) cannot be measured directly,
there are several indicators that can be used to assess the scope of online CSEM and whether there
is an increase in the production and/or distribution of material. Europol will be monitoring the specific indicators below in the upcoming weeks to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on online child sexual exploitation and support investigations.
1) The number of referrals from NCMEC/NCECC1
There does not appear to be a significant increase in
the number of referrals. However, this may be due to decreased manual moderation of platforms because of teleworking, latency in the reporting period, and the use of automatic systems to detect content online rather than a decrease in availability of CSEM.
2) Information from national law enforcement authorities on the number of searches being carried out online for CSEM
Countries have reported an increase in the number of attempts to access illegal websites featuring CSEM blocked in their filters.
3) The number of reports from the public to law enforcement or other institutions (hotlines)
Spain has noted a significant increase
in the number of complaints submitted by the public about CSEM online
since the beginning of March 2020 (Figure 1)2. From February to March 2020, there was an increase of 100 complaints compared to the previous month. Over more than three years, the number of monthly reports was higher on only two previous occasions.
Denmark has reported an increase in the number of attempts to access illegal websites featuring CSEM. The growth, from 18 sites searched to 55, represents a three-fold increase from one week to another. This is an indication of increased online offender activity or at least demand for CSEM online3.
4) The nature or volume of new posts on online forums dedicated to child sexual exploitation compared to established baselines
Isolated and ‘bored’ offenders are stating their increasing interest in image trading. In some countries, there has been an increase in adult offenders attempting to initiate contact with children via social media.
5) Conversations between criminals on forums
Discussions about the COVID-19 pandemic are already appearing on child sexual exploitation boards on the dark web. Users there indicate their anticipation that children are going to be spending an increased amount of time online, with references made to the Omegle application. Other users indicate they will have more time to download available material.
6) Number of detected connections from which CSEM has been downloaded over
peer-to-peer file-sharing networks
Spain, for example, has reported a 25% increase between the weeks commencing 17 March and 24 March, as illustrated in Figure 2. Other countries have also reported similar trends.