Geopolitical factors may create challenges for the EU’s internal security

GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS Recognising the internal-external security nexus is crucial in trying to understand upcoming challenges to the EU’s internal security. The EU continues to engage with partners globally. China’s influence on trade, infrastructure and security at a global level, particularly in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa, will shape the EU’s foreign policy and security stance, including as regards the EU’s internal security. This development will necessitate stronger European security autonomy and greater cooperation between national authorities in all security domains such as defence, intelligence and law enforcement. EU-based criminals will look to China for criminal opportunities while Chinese organised crime will use the country’s footprint across the world to intensify their criminal operations outside China. There is still significant conflict potential on the periphery of the EU, with active conflicts in Ukraine and between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as instability in Libya, the Sahel region and the eastern Mediterranean area. Stability in certain post-conflict areas remains fragile and there is a risk of relapsing into active conflicts should conditions deteriorate. Active conflicts may cause further mass migration movements towards the EU, fuelling the migrantsmuggling industry that has emerged over recent years.